The research work is performed by teachers, doctoral and post-graduate students, and contenders of the Department, as well as senior students in the complex area of Methodology and Toolkit of Modelling of Economic Processes Taking Account of Risk, in which the methodology, the toolkit and the analysis of theoretical and applied aspects of the modelling of economic processes are developed taking account of the uncertainty and the associated risk. The research is carried out for most sectors of the economy and most economic activities; some results are implemented in practice. The scientific school in Riskology headed by V.V. Vitlinsky was established at the Department. The Ukrainian National Scientific Seminar in Modelling and Riskology in the Economy discussing a broad range of issues related to the modelling of economic systems and processes, as well as the riskology has been working since 2001. The Economic and Mathematical Modelling Department trained 7 ScDs (three of them — Lev Terekhov, Valdemar Vitlinsky and Andriy Matviychyk are teachers of the Department), and more than 70 PhDs. More than 800 papers with the total volume exceeding 600 printer's sheets have been published as a result of the scientific research.
Riskology Scientific School.In 1990, the Department started with the scientific research into the risk analysis in entrepreneurship. This subject area was expanded and the risk theory concept was created by Professor Valdemar Vitlinsky, ScD in Economics. His work provided the basis for the establishment of the Riskology Scientific School (riskology is defined as the science of risk in economy and business). International scientific conferences in economic modelling and riskology are held every year in one of Ukraine's higher education establishments with the participation of KNEU. The school maintains stable scientific relations with the leading higher education establishments of Russia, research institutions of the Russian Academy of Sciences and some higher education establishments of Belarus, Poland and Germany.
V.V. Vitlinsky, Department Head, authored more than 300 papers and textbooks, including 8 monographs. His work has been recognised in a number of leading universities of various countries. His students successfully defended 6 ScD and 17 PhD theses; 18 theses were defended by students of his students. Starting from year 2001, Professor V. Vitlinsky has been a member of the Programmes Committee of the International Scientific School in Modelling and Analysis of Security and Risk in Complex Systems (MABR) held annually in Saint Petersburg.
Prof. Vitlinskyy V.V. is recognized for the following achievements:
- significant development of the theoretical and methodological foundations of riskology (risk management) and its structuring as a systemically coherent set of mechanisms and mathematical models.
- substantiation of the necessity of recognition and taking into account various types of uncertainty, their superposition and the resulting risk.
- formulation a number of new indicators of quantitative risk evaluation in management decision, considering dialectical objective-subjective structure of risk.
- development of fuzzy method and game fuzzy method based on fuzzy hierarchy analysis method.
- consideration of asymmetry and kurtosis while assessing the financial risks, formulation of tools for quantitative evaluation of the conditional capital at risk and assessment of potential extreme losses.
- creation of several new utility functions which can be used in mathematical models of evaluation business decisions.
- definition of conceptual provisions and developing appropriate tools for modelling of economic processes based on the application of systematic and synergetic approaches, nonlinear dynamics, accounting system characteristics (stability, agility, persistence, reliability, risk).
- development of a comprehensive toolkit for prior the forecast analysis of time series (adaptive harmonic analysis; statistical serial analysis of binary coded rows; improved R/S-analysis on the basis of the transition to the series of first differences).
Prof. Nakonechny S.I. contributes to the mathematical programming approach for modelling agricultural decision-making processes. He is the author of many books about Agricultural economics. Many years he was the Head of the Economic-Mathematic Modelling Department.
Prof. Matviychuk A.V. is recognized for the following achievements:
- development of the concept of building the mathematical models in order to identify financial time dependency and financial forecasting indicators taking into account the regularities of the development of economic systems defined on the basis of the theory of Elliott waves in the form of fuzzy logic rules;
- formulation of the methodology for conducting a comprehensive analysis of the financial condition of enterprises using fuzzy logic and development of mathematical models for diagnosing a possible bankruptcy (the input factors are independent variables and the most informative indicators that, unlike econometric models of diagnostics, allow to estimate the time until possible bankruptcy and thereby reduce potential losses);
- development of the risk assessment of tax evasion, considering the distribution of taxpayers by type of attention from the bodies of the State tax service. As a result, offered the method of forming the schedule of tax audits that, provide the ability to incorporate expert knowledge and to configure the parameters of mathematical models based on the results of inspections;
- development of the multi-level hierarchical system based on a synthesis method of fuzzy logic and neural networks, which provides simultaneous analysis of financial, production conditions and management level of the enterprise for quantitative evaluation of the enterprise competitiveness.
Prof. Piskunova A.V. works on development of mathematical models of small business that are designed to analyse the effectiveness of state regulation of development of small entrepreneurship in the Ukraine. Among her achievements are:
- development of the model of the dynamics of a small business, operating in conditions of uncertainty under influence of a complex of objective and subjective factors. The model allows to assess the influence of risk management decision efficiency on the development of small enterprises, and forecast the possible outcomes of investment into small business under compositional uncertainty.
- development of the model of a small enterprise flexibility based on the theory of economic change, which takes into account the stochasticity of prices of manufactured goods and future price expectations.
Prof.Zhluktenko V.I. did a significant contribution to the theory of stochastic processes. In particular, he works in the field of Markovian queueing processes. He is the author of many papers and books about the use of stochastic processes in economy. Prof.Zhluktenko V.I is the most eminent Ukrainian scientist who deals with stochastic processes.
Prof.Verchenko P.I. worked on the problems of modelling and analysis of economic risks. He had been offered new models for multi tasks of decision making under uncertainty, conflict and the resulting risk. He also did a considerable contribution in modelling of economy on the base of nonlinear dynamics.
Significant achievements in the development of risk-management in Ukraine did Skrypnyk A.V., Lukyanenko I.G., Kaminskiy A.B., Afanasiev E.V., Grytsiuk P.M., who successfully defended doctoral dissertation under the supervision of Vitlinskiy V.V.
Candidate of Sciences (Physico-Mathematical) Y.V. Kolyada works on nonlinear dynamics of the economic system on the basis of mathematical and computer modelling. As a result, a priori and a posteriori adaptation was analysed considering exogenous and endogenous conditions of the modelling process.
Last redaction: 08.02.16